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examBoard: Cambridge
examType: IGCSE
lessonTitle: Potential for Water Conflict
Water is essential for life, agriculture, industry and energy production. As populations grow and climate change intensifies, competition for limited water resources is becoming fiercer. This competition can lead to conflicts between communities, regions and countries that share water resources.
Key Definitions:
Water conflicts arise for several key reasons:
Water conflicts can occur at different scales:
Around the world, there are numerous examples of water conflicts between nations. These disputes often involve shared rivers, lakes, or underground aquifers. Here are some of the most significant examples:
The Nile is shared by 11 countries, with Egypt historically claiming the majority of its water based on colonial-era agreements. Recent tensions have escalated with Ethiopia's construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Egypt depends on the Nile for 90% of its freshwater and fears reduced flow. It claims historical rights based on treaties from 1929 and 1959.
Ethiopia sees the dam as vital for development and electricity generation. It argues that colonial-era agreements shouldn't limit its use of the river.
Initially concerned about the dam, Sudan now sees potential benefits including regulated flow, reduced flooding and electricity access.
The GERD is Africa's largest hydroelectric power plant. Construction began in 2011 on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. When completed, it will generate over 6,000 megawatts of electricity, helping to address Ethiopia's energy shortage and potentially allowing electricity exports. However, the dam's reservoir can hold 74 billion cubic metres of water, raising concerns about reduced water flow to downstream countries during filling periods. Despite years of negotiations, a comprehensive agreement on the dam's operation has not been reached, highlighting the challenges of managing shared water resources.
Several regions around the world face significant water disputes that threaten stability and development:
Shared by Israel, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Palestinian territories, water access in this arid region has been a source of tension for decades. Israel controls the headwaters of the Jordan River and groundwater in the West Bank. Water agreements were part of the 1994 Israel-Jordan peace treaty, but disputes continue over water allocation and access.
Turkey's construction of dams under the Southeastern Anatolia Project has reduced water flow to Syria and Iraq, creating tensions. Turkey controls the headwaters of both rivers and has built over 20 dams, affecting downstream water availability. Iraq, which depends heavily on these rivers, has seen its water supply significantly reduced.
India and Pakistan share the Indus River system. The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty has generally worked well despite political tensions between the countries. However, India's dam construction on tributaries allocated to Pakistan has created friction. Climate change and growing populations are putting additional pressure on this water-sharing arrangement.
China's construction of dams on the upper Mekong affects water flow to downstream countries including Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. These dams alter the river's natural flow, affecting fisheries and agriculture downstream. China is not a member of the Mekong River Commission, making coordinated management difficult.
Water scarcity doesn't just create disputes between countries it can also contribute to internal conflicts and political instability within nations.
Research has shown links between water scarcity and conflict, particularly in regions already experiencing political tensions. Water shortages can lead to:
While many factors contributed to the Syrian Civil War that began in 2011, severe drought from 2006-2010 played a significant role. The drought:
Despite the challenges, there are many examples of successful cooperation over shared water resources. Several approaches have proven effective:
Treaties and agreements that establish clear water allocation rules and dispute resolution mechanisms. The 1997 UN Watercourses Convention provides a framework for equitable water sharing.
River basin organizations that bring together all stakeholders to manage shared waters. The International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine has successfully improved water quality and management.
Improving water efficiency, developing alternative water sources and implementing water-saving technologies can reduce competition for limited resources.
The Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan, signed in 1960 with World Bank mediation, is considered one of the most successful water-sharing agreements in the world. It has survived three wars between the countries and continues to function despite ongoing political tensions. The treaty allocates the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan. It includes detailed mechanisms for information sharing, dispute resolution and infrastructure development. While not perfect, the treaty demonstrates how countries with significant political differences can still cooperate on water management.
Looking ahead, several factors will influence the potential for water conflicts:
Climate change is altering precipitation patterns, increasing evaporation and causing more extreme weather events. These changes will likely intensify water scarcity in many regions and create new challenges for water management. Areas already experiencing water stress may face greater difficulties, potentially leading to new conflicts.
Growing populations and expanding cities increase water demand for drinking, sanitation and industrial uses. By 2050, global water demand is expected to increase by 20-30%. Many rapidly growing urban areas are in water-stressed regions, creating potential flashpoints for future conflicts.
To prevent future water conflicts, countries and communities need to work toward water security through integrated approaches:
By addressing water challenges cooperatively, we can reduce the potential for conflict and ensure that water becomes a source of cooperation rather than contention.
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