Changes in Population Size » Factors Affecting Birth and Death Rates

What you'll learn this session

Study time: 30 minutes

The key factors that influence birth rates around the world
The main factors that affect death rates globally
How social, economic and cultural factors impact population growth
Case studies of countries with different demographic patterns
How government policies can influence population change
The demographic transition model and its stages

Understanding Population Change

Population size is constantly changing across the globe. Some countries are experiencing rapid growth, while others face declining populations. These changes are driven by two key factors: birth rates and death rates.

Key Definitions:

Birth rate: The number of live births per 1,000 people in a population per year.
Death rate: The number of deaths per 1,000 people in a population per year.
Natural increase/decrease: The difference between birth rate and death rate (not accounting for migration).
Total fertility rate (TFR): The average number of children a woman will have during her reproductive years.

Factors Affecting Birth Rates

Birth rates vary dramatically around the world. Niger has one of the highest birth rates at 47.5 births per 1,000 people, while South Korea has one of the lowest at 5.9 births per 1,000 people. Let's explore why these differences exist.

♀ Social and Cultural Factors

Women's education and employment: When women have better access to education and careers, they tend to have fewer children. This is because education creates more life opportunities beyond raising children.

Marriage age: Later marriages typically lead to fewer children as women have less time during their reproductive years to have children.

Religious beliefs: Some religions encourage large families and may discourage the use of contraception.

Traditional values: In some societies, having many children is seen as a sign of prosperity and status.

£ Economic Factors

Cost of raising children: In wealthy countries, raising children is expensive (education, childcare, housing), which can discourage large families.

Need for labour: In agricultural societies, children often help with farming and provide economic support.

Old-age security: In countries without pension systems, people may have more children to support them in old age.

Economic development: As countries develop economically, birth rates typically fall.

Access to Healthcare and Family Planning

Access to healthcare services, particularly reproductive healthcare, has a significant impact on birth rates:

Contraception availability: When contraception is affordable and accessible, people can choose when and how many children to have.
Family planning education: Knowledge about reproductive health helps people make informed choices.
Infant mortality: When infant mortality is high, families often have more children to ensure some survive to adulthood.

Government Policies

Governments can influence birth rates through various policies:

↓ Policies to Reduce Birth Rates

China's One-Child Policy (1979-2015): Limited most urban couples to one child. Resulted in a significant decrease in China's birth rate but led to an ageing population and gender imbalance.

Education campaigns: Many countries use public education to promote smaller family sizes.

↑ Policies to Increase Birth Rates

Baby bonuses: Countries like Singapore and Australia offer financial incentives for having children.

Parental leave: Generous parental leave in countries like Sweden makes it easier to balance work and family.

Subsidised childcare: Making childcare affordable encourages people to have children while continuing to work.

Factors Affecting Death Rates

Death rates have generally declined worldwide over the past century, but significant variations still exist between countries. Let's examine the key factors influencing death rates:

Healthcare and Medical Advances

Access to healthcare: Countries with universal healthcare typically have lower death rates.
Medical technology: Advances in treatments, vaccines and medications have dramatically reduced deaths from many diseases.
Sanitation and clean water: Improved sanitation has reduced deaths from waterborne diseases.
Maternal healthcare: Better prenatal and postnatal care reduces maternal and infant mortality.

Socioeconomic Factors

Wealth and social conditions play a crucial role in determining death rates:

♥ Nutrition

Better nutrition strengthens immune systems and reduces vulnerability to disease. Malnutrition remains a significant cause of death in low-income countries.

£ Income

Higher incomes generally correlate with lower death rates as people can afford better food, housing and healthcare. Income inequality within countries can lead to health disparities.

⊕ Education

Education helps people make healthier choices and better understand health information. More educated populations typically have lower death rates.

Environmental Factors

Our environment significantly impacts our health and mortality:

Air pollution: Causes respiratory diseases and is linked to millions of premature deaths annually.
Water quality: Contaminated water causes diseases like cholera and typhoid.
Climate: Extreme weather events and climate change can increase mortality through heatwaves, floods and other disasters.
Housing quality: Poor housing conditions can lead to respiratory problems and other health issues.

Age Structure of Population

The age composition of a population significantly affects its death rate:

Countries with older populations (like Japan and Italy) naturally have higher death rates.
Countries with younger populations (like Nigeria and Uganda) typically have lower death rates.

Case Study Focus: Japan vs. Niger

Japan: With a birth rate of just 7 per 1,000 and a death rate of 11 per 1,000, Japan's population is shrinking. The country has:

High costs of raising children
Long working hours making family life difficult
Limited immigration to offset natural decrease
One of the world's highest life expectancies (84 years)
Excellent healthcare and nutrition
An ageing population with 28% over age 65

Niger: With a birth rate of 47.5 per 1,000 and a death rate of 8 per 1,000, Niger's population is growing rapidly. The country has:

Limited access to contraception
Early marriage age (average 16 years for girls)
Agricultural economy where children provide labour
Lower life expectancy (62 years)
Limited healthcare access in rural areas
A very young population with 50% under age 15

The Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) helps us understand how birth and death rates change as a country develops economically. It consists of five stages:

1 Stage 1: High Fluctuating

High birth rates and high death rates lead to slow population growth. This was typical of pre-industrial societies where disease, famine and war caused high mortality.

Example: Historical England before 1760

2 Stage 2: Early Expanding

Death rates fall due to improved food supply, sanitation and healthcare, but birth rates remain high. This results in rapid population growth.

Example: Many parts of sub-Saharan Africa today

3 Stage 3: Late Expanding

Birth rates begin to fall as people have access to contraception and choose smaller families. Population growth continues but at a slower rate.

Example: India, Brazil, Mexico

4 Stage 4: Low Fluctuating

Both birth and death rates are low, resulting in slow population growth or stability.

Example: UK, USA, Australia

5 Stage 5: Decline

Birth rates fall below death rates, leading to a natural decrease in population. This is a recent addition to the model.

Example: Japan, Italy, Germany

Summary: Key Influences on Population Change

Population change is influenced by a complex interplay of factors:

Birth rates are influenced by education, women's status, economic development, cultural values and access to family planning.
Death rates are affected by healthcare quality, income levels, nutrition, environmental conditions and age structure.
As countries develop economically, they typically move through the stages of the Demographic Transition Model.
Government policies can significantly impact both birth and death rates, either intentionally or unintentionally.

Understanding these factors helps us predict future population trends and develop appropriate policies to address challenges like ageing populations in developed countries and rapid population growth in developing regions.

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