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examBoard: Cambridge
examType: IGCSE
lessonTitle: Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is a way of explaining how countries' populations change over time as they develop economically. It shows how birth rates and death rates change as countries move from being less developed to more developed and how this affects overall population growth.
Key Definitions:
The DTM helps us understand why some countries have rapidly growing populations while others have stable or even declining populations. It helps governments plan for future needs like schools, hospitals and housing. It also helps explain why different countries face different population challenges.
The DTM was developed by American demographer Warren Thompson in 1929. He noticed patterns in how birth and death rates changed in industrialised countries over the previous 200 years. The model was originally based on the experience of Western European countries during their industrial revolution.
The DTM is divided into five stages, each representing a different phase of economic development and its impact on population.
This stage represents pre-industrial society, where both birth rates and death rates are high.
Very high (35-40 per 1,000) because:
Very high (30-35 per 1,000) because:
Very slow or fluctuating. Population size remains fairly stable but can drop suddenly due to:
This stage typically begins as a country starts to industrialise and develop. Death rates fall rapidly while birth rates remain high.
Remains high (30-40 per 1,000) because:
Falls rapidly (20-10 per 1,000) because:
Very rapid population growth as the gap between birth and death rates is at its widest. This creates a population explosion.
Kenya is currently in Stage 2 of the DTM. Its birth rate is around 28 per 1,000, while its death rate has fallen to about 5 per 1,000. This gives Kenya a natural increase of 23 per 1,000 people annually, resulting in rapid population growth. Improved healthcare has reduced infant mortality and increased life expectancy, but traditional values that favour large families remain strong. Kenya's population is projected to double by 2050 if current trends continue.
As a country continues to develop economically, birth rates begin to fall while death rates continue to decline but at a slower pace.
Begins to fall (30-20 per 1,000) because:
Continues to fall but more slowly (10-5 per 1,000) because:
Population still grows but at a decreasing rate as the gap between birth and death rates narrows.
Brazil is currently in Stage 3 of the DTM. Its birth rate has fallen to about 14 per 1,000, while its death rate is around 6 per 1,000. This gives a natural increase of 8 per 1,000, which is moderate growth. Brazil's fertility rate has dropped from 6.3 children per woman in 1960 to 1.7 today. This dramatic fall is due to increased urbanisation, better education for women, wider access to contraception and changing attitudes towards family size. Despite slowing growth, Brazil still faces challenges from its previous rapid population increase.
This stage represents highly developed countries where both birth and death rates are low.
Low (10-15 per 1,000) because:
Low (10-12 per 1,000) because:
Population growth is very slow, stable or even static as birth and death rates are roughly equal.
This final stage was added to the original model to account for countries where birth rates have fallen below death rates.
In Stage 5:
Countries in Stage 5 include:
Japan is firmly in Stage 5 of the DTM. Its birth rate is around 7 per 1,000, while its death rate is about 11 per 1,000, creating a natural decrease. Japan's population peaked in 2010 at 128 million and is projected to fall to less than 100 million by 2050. This decline has created serious challenges: a shrinking workforce, increased healthcare costs and pressure on pension systems. The Japanese government has implemented policies to encourage higher birth rates, including improved childcare, financial incentives for families and better work-life balance, but with limited success so far.
While the DTM is a useful tool for understanding population changes, it has several important limitations:
The model was based on the experience of European countries during industrialisation. Many developing countries today are following different paths of development and population change. For example, some countries have experienced falling birth rates before significant economic development due to government policies or cultural factors.
The DTM only considers natural population change (births and deaths) and doesn't account for migration, which can significantly affect a country's population size and structure. Countries like the UK would have declining populations if not for immigration.
The model doesn't specify how long each stage lasts or when transitions occur. Modern developing countries are moving through the stages much faster than European countries did historically. For example, it took the UK about 200 years to move from Stage 2 to Stage 4, while Thailand made the same transition in just 50 years.
The model doesn't account for external influences like international aid, global health initiatives, or government population policies. China's One-Child Policy, for example, accelerated its transition through the stages in a way not predicted by the model.
For your iGCSE Geography examination, you should be able to:
When answering questions about the DTM, always use specific data and examples to support your points. For instance, don't just say "birth rates are high in Stage 1" - instead say "birth rates are typically 35-40 per 1,000 in Stage 1, as seen in countries like Niger where traditional agricultural societies value large families for labour." This level of detail will help you achieve higher marks.
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