Changing Populations » Youthful and Ageing Population Structures

What you'll learn this session

Study time: 30 minutes

How to identify and interpret youthful and ageing population structures
The causes of youthful and ageing populations
The social, economic and environmental impacts of different population structures
Case studies of countries with youthful and ageing populations
Population management strategies and policies

Understanding Population Structures

Population structure refers to the composition of a population in terms of age and gender. This is typically shown using population pyramids, which are bar charts showing the percentage or number of males and females in different age groups.

Key Definitions:

Population structure: The composition of a population by age and gender.
Population pyramid: A graphical representation showing the age-sex distribution of a population.
Dependency ratio: The ratio of the non-working population (typically under 15 and over 64) to the working population (15-64).
Birth rate: The number of live births per 1,000 people per year.
Death rate: The number of deaths per 1,000 people per year.

👶 Youthful Population

A youthful population has a high proportion of young people and a low proportion of elderly people. The population pyramid has a wide base that narrows towards the top, resembling a triangle.

Characteristics:

High birth rates
High percentage of population under 15
High dependency ratio
Rapid population growth

👴 Ageing Population

An ageing population has a high proportion of elderly people and a low proportion of young people. The population pyramid has a narrower base and a wider top, resembling a barrel or column.

Characteristics:

Low birth rates
High percentage of population over 65
Increasing dependency ratio
Slow or negative population growth

Causes of Different Population Structures

🌎 Causes of Youthful Populations

High birth rates due to:
- Limited access to family planning
- Cultural preferences for large families
- Children as economic assets (farm labour)
- High infant mortality rates
- Low status of women and limited education
Improving healthcare leading to:
- Declining death rates, especially infant mortality
- Longer life expectancy

🏠 Causes of Ageing Populations

Low birth rates due to:
- Access to contraception and family planning
- Higher costs of raising children
- Women pursuing education and careers
- Later marriages and changing family structures
Increased life expectancy due to:
- Advanced healthcare systems
- Better nutrition and living standards
- Declining death rates at all ages

Impacts of Population Structures

Impacts of Youthful Populations

💰 Economic Impacts

High youth dependency ratio strains resources
Pressure on education systems
High unemployment if job creation can't keep pace
Potential for future economic growth (demographic dividend)

🏢 Social Impacts

Pressure on healthcare and education services
Housing shortages
Potential for social unrest if youth unemployment is high
Rapid urbanisation as young people migrate to cities

🌲 Environmental Impacts

Increased resource consumption
Land pressure for housing and agriculture
Deforestation and habitat loss
Increased pollution and waste

Impacts of Ageing Populations

💰 Economic Impacts

Shrinking workforce and labour shortages
Increasing pension and healthcare costs
Higher taxes on working population
Changing consumer demands and markets

🏢 Social Impacts

Pressure on healthcare systems
Need for elderly care services
Changes in family structures and support systems
Potential intergenerational conflicts

🌲 Environmental Impacts

Potentially reduced resource consumption
Different housing and transport needs
Changes in land use patterns
Reduced carbon footprint per person

Case Study: Nigeria - A Youthful Population

Nigeria is Africa's most populous country with over 200 million people. It has a classic youthful population structure:

Median age: 18.1 years
43% of population under 15 years old
Birth rate: 36 births per 1,000 people
Fertility rate: 5.3 children per woman

Challenges: Nigeria faces significant challenges including providing education for its large youth population, creating enough jobs and managing rapid urbanisation. Lagos, Nigeria's largest city, is one of the fastest-growing urban areas in the world.

Opportunities: With the right policies, Nigeria could benefit from a 'demographic dividend' as its large youth population enters the workforce, potentially driving economic growth.

Case Study: Japan - An Ageing Population

Japan has one of the world's oldest populations and is facing the challenges of an ageing society:

Median age: 48.4 years
28% of population over 65 years old
Birth rate: 7 births per 1,000 people
Fertility rate: 1.4 children per woman

Challenges: Japan faces a shrinking workforce, rising healthcare costs and increasing pension expenditure. Rural areas are particularly affected as young people move to cities, leaving elderly populations behind.

Responses: Japan has implemented various strategies including encouraging immigration, investing in robotics and automation to address labour shortages and promoting policies to increase birth rates.

Managing Population Challenges

📝 Managing Youthful Populations

Family planning programmes: Providing access to contraception and education about family size
Investing in education: Particularly for girls, which often leads to lower birth rates
Job creation: Developing industries to employ the growing workforce
Urban planning: Managing the growth of cities to accommodate growing populations

💼 Managing Ageing Populations

Pro-natalist policies: Financial incentives and support for families with children
Immigration: Encouraging working-age migrants to boost the workforce
Pension reform: Adjusting retirement ages and pension systems
Healthcare innovation: Developing more efficient elderly care systems
Technology: Using automation and robotics to address labour shortages

The Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) helps us understand how countries move from having youthful to ageing populations as they develop economically. It shows how birth and death rates change over time, affecting population structure.

📊 Stages of the DTM

Stage 1: High birth rates and high death rates = slow population growth
Stage 2: High birth rates but falling death rates = rapid population growth and youthful structure
Stage 3: Declining birth rates and low death rates = moderate population growth
Stage 4: Low birth rates and low death rates = stable or slow population growth
Stage 5: Birth rates below death rates = population decline and ageing structure

🌎 Global Patterns

Countries at different stages of development are at different stages of the DTM:

Stage 1: No countries remain in this stage
Stage 2: Many low-income countries in Africa (e.g., Niger, Mali)
Stage 3: Many middle-income countries (e.g., India, Brazil)
Stage 4: Most high-income countries (e.g., USA, UK, Australia)
Stage 5: Japan, Italy, Germany and other ageing societies

Conclusion: Future Challenges

Understanding population structures is crucial for planning for the future. Both youthful and ageing populations present unique challenges and opportunities:

Countries with youthful populations need to invest in education and job creation to harness their potential demographic dividend
Countries with ageing populations need to adapt their economies, healthcare systems and social support structures
Global migration patterns are likely to be influenced by these different population structures
Sustainable development requires considering the needs of both current and future generations

As you continue your geography studies, remember that population structures are dynamic and constantly changing. The decisions countries make today about managing their populations will shape societies for decades to come.

🧠 Test Your Knowledge!