Global Development » The Demographic Transition Model

What is the Demographic Transition Model?

As a country develops, its population changes in a pattern. Birth rates and death rates do not stay the same. They change as people get better healthcare, food, education and jobs.

Geographers show this pattern in a graph called the Demographic Transition Model, or DTM. It links the level of development of a country to how fast its population is growing.

Key terms:

• Demographic Transition Model (DTM): a model that shows how a country's birth rate, death rate and total population change over time as the country develops.
• Total population: the number of people living in a country.
• Family planning: using contraception and advice to choose how many children to have, and when.
• Ageing population: a population with a high and growing share of older people.

You met birth rate, death rate and natural increase in earlier lessons. This lesson shows how they change together.

How to read the model

The DTM graph has a time axis along the bottom and the rates up the side. It has three lines:

The key idea is the gap between the birth rate and the death rate. A wide gap means a large natural increase and a fast-growing population. When the gap is small, the population grows slowly or stays level.

The model has four main stages. Some versions add a fifth.

Stage 1: high stationary

• Birth rate: high
• Death rate: high, and it goes up and down
• Natural increase: low, so the population stays small

This is a country with a very low level of development. There is little healthcare, little clean water and not enough food. Disease and famine kill many people, especially babies and children. Families have lots of children because some will not survive and because children can help with work.

Examples: No country is in Stage 1 today. Countries such as the UK were in Stage 1 before the Industrial Revolution. A few small, isolated tribal groups in remote rainforests still fit this pattern.

Stage 2: early expanding

• Birth rate: still high
• Death rate: falls quickly
• Natural increase: very high, so the population grows fast

The death rate falls because development starts to bring improvements:

• better healthcare and vaccinations
• cleaner water and better sanitation
• more reliable food supplies

The birth rate stays high. People are used to large families, there is little family planning, and many parents still want children to work or to look after them when they are old. With births far above deaths, the population rises quickly.

Examples: Low income countries such as Mali and Somalia.

Stage 3: late expanding

• Birth rate: falls
• Death rate: low and still falling slowly
• Natural increase: still high, but slowing down

The birth rate falls because:

• family planning and contraception become available
• fewer babies die, so parents do not need to have as many children
• more women are educated and go out to work
• more people live in cities, where children cost more to raise and are less useful for work

The population is still growing, but each year it grows by a smaller amount.

Examples: Countries such as Bangladesh and Egypt are often given as examples of Stage 3.

Stage 4: low stationary

• Birth rate: low
• Death rate: low
• Natural increase: low, so the total population is high but grows slowly or stays level

The country is highly developed. Healthcare is good, and most people have access to education and use family planning. Many couples choose to have fewer children, so they can focus on their careers and enjoy a higher standard of living. The birth rate can go up and down a little from year to year.

Examples: High income countries such as the UK and the USA.

Stage 5: declining

Some versions of the model add a fifth stage. The birth rate falls below the death rate, so the total population begins to fall. This happens when there are many older people and few young adults having children.

Examples: Japan and Germany are often used as examples. Both have an ageing population and their total populations have started to fall.

Linking the stages to development

Countries move through the stages as their level of development rises. Here is the link:

Newly emerging economies sit in the middle, usually in Stage 3, because their development is changing fast.

Exam-style question

(a) Describe the birth rate and death rate in Stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model. [2 marks]

(b) Explain why the birth rate falls in Stage 3. [3 marks]

(c) Name one country that is in Stage 4 of the model. [1 mark]