Population Structures » Population Example: China

Where and what: China at a glance

China is a country in East Asia, with its capital in Beijing. It is classed as an MIC. It has about 1.4 billion people, which makes it one of the two most populous countries in the world. This lesson uses China as the named example for the causes of population growth and decline and for the impacts of a population policy. Use the ideas from Pro-Natalist and Anti-Natalist Policies and Youthful and Ageing Populations by name, and put China's facts on top of them.

Key terms:

• One-child policy: China's anti-natalist policy that limited most couples to one child, from about 1980 to 2015.
• Sex ratio: the number of males for every 100 females in a population.
• 4-2-1 problem: one adult child having to support two parents and four grandparents.

Timeline

Date	What happened
1949	The People's Republic of China is founded. The population is about 540 million.
1950s-1960s	Falling death rates and high birth rates cause rapid growth.
1970s	A "later, longer, fewer" campaign urges later marriage, longer gaps between births and fewer children. Fertility falls from about 5.8 to about 2.7 children per woman.
1979/1980	The one-child policy begins. The population is about 1 billion.
2015/2016	The one-child policy ends and a two-child policy begins.
2021	The three-child policy is announced.
2022	The population falls for the first time in about 60 years.

Why the population grew

After 1949, China's population grew very fast because the birth rate stayed high while the death rate fell.

The result was a natural increase of tens of millions of extra people in each decade. The population rose from about 540 million in 1949 to about 1 billion by the early 1980s. This is the pattern you saw in the demographic transition model, where death rates fall before birth rates do.

The one-child policy (1979/1980 to 2015)

The government feared that so many people would overwhelm food, housing, jobs and schools. So it brought in a strict anti-natalist policy. Most couples in towns and cities could have only one child.

The policy was not the same everywhere. Many rural families whose first child was a girl, and some ethnic minority groups, were allowed a second child.

Impacts of the one-child policy

Impact	Detail
Birth rate and fertility	Fertility fell well below replacement level, so population growth slowed and the government says hundreds of millions of births were prevented. Fertility was already falling in the 1970s, so the policy was not the only cause.
Gender imbalance	Many families preferred a son, to work the land and support them in old age. Some used sex-selective abortion or did not register daughters. In some years more than 115 boys were born for every 100 girls, against a natural level of about 105. This left tens of millions more men than women, so many men cannot find a partner.
Ageing population	With few children and longer lives, the share of older people rose. About 15% of people in China (more than 1 in 7) are now aged 65 or over, and the share is still rising. There are fewer workers to pay taxes and pensions.
4-2-1 problem	One only child may have to support two parents and four grandparents, with no brothers or sisters to share the care.
Social and human rights	Forced abortions and sterilisations, and unregistered "extra" children who had no access to school or healthcare. Only children, sometimes called "little emperors", grew up under great family pressure.

The impacts were social (gender imbalance, human rights, family pressure) and economic (fewer workers, higher pension and care costs). They were felt at the local scale (families and villages with too few young women) and the national scale (pensions, labour supply).

Why the population began to fall

By 2015, the government saw that fertility was far too low and the population was ageing fast. It ended the one-child policy and allowed two children, then three children in 2021. These pro-natalist changes have had only a limited effect so far. Births rose briefly in 2016 and then fell again. China's population peaked at about 1.41 billion, fell in 2022, then fell again in 2023 and 2024. Fertility is now about 1.0 to 1.2 children per woman, one of the lowest in the world. The reasons are:

• Low fertility: couples are used to small families, and many people are delaying or avoiding marriage and children.
• Cost of raising children: housing, education and childcare in cities are expensive, and many parents work long hours.
• Ageing: deaths are rising as the large generations born in the 1960s grow old, while there are fewer young women to have babies.

To evaluate the one-child policy, look at both sides. It slowed growth and eased pressure on resources. But it brought gender imbalance, ageing and human rights concerns, and its effects are hard to reverse.

Exam-style question

Study Fig. 1.1, which shows made-up data for a country called Country C.

Year	Births per woman
1970	6.2
1980	3.5
2000	2.1
2020	1.6

Fig. 1.1

(a) Calculate the fall in births per woman in Country C between 1970 and 1980. [1 mark]

(b) Explain one reason why China's population grew quickly after 1949. [2 marks]

(c) Describe one incentive and one penalty used in the one-child policy. [2 marks]

(d) Evaluate the impacts of China's one-child policy. [6 marks]